Risk Disclosures

1. Investing involves risk of loss

• The value of any investment can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you put in.
• Past performance does not predict future results. This includes historical returns, rankings, backtests and seasonal patterns shown in the Service.
• Spreading money across funds does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
• Moving in and out of funds more often can raise costs and risk, and can leave you out of the market on its best days.
• The right mix for you depends on your age, income, goals, time until you need the money and how much loss you can live with. NAV Desk does not know or assess these things.

2. TSP-specific points

• Rules belong to the TSP. Limits on interfund transfers, mutual fund window eligibility, the share of your balance allowed in the window, fees, trading deadlines and processing times are set by the TSP and can change. The Service's counters and reminders reflect our understanding of those rules and the numbers you entered. Always confirm on tsp.gov before you act.
• Timing. TSP transactions are processed at the times and prices the TSP sets, not when you look at NAV Desk. A value shown during the day may not be the price you receive.
• Mutual fund window. Funds available through the window carry their own fees, minimums, holding rules and risks, which are described in each fund's prospectus. Read it before investing.
• Retirement consequences. Decisions about your TSP affect your retirement income. A loss late in your career can be hard to recover from.

3. Higher-risk investments

• Leveraged and inverse funds. Some funds ranked in the Service aim to multiply, or move opposite to, an index's daily move. They are built for short periods. Over longer periods their returns can differ sharply from what the multiple suggests, and losses can be fast and large.
• Sector and single-stock exposure. Concentrated positions can swing far more than a broad index.
• Crypto assets. Prices are highly volatile, trade around the clock, and can drop steeply with little warning. Crypto-linked funds may not track the underlying asset exactly.
• Futures and macro indicators. Where shown, these are context only. They move quickly and are not a signal to trade.

4. Data and estimates can be wrong

• Delayed or missing data. Prices and other market data come from third parties and can be late, incomplete, stale or incorrect. A source can fail or change without notice.
• Estimated values. Intraday fund values, share prices before the official close and similar figures are estimates calculated from related market data. They are not official values and can differ from the price finally published.
• Your own entries. Balances, shares and costs are whatever you entered or confirmed. If they are wrong or out of date, everything built on them is too.
• Calculations. Year-to-date returns, projections and retirement estimates use simplified methods and assumptions. They will not exactly match your official statements.
• Software errors. Like any software, the Service can contain bugs or be unavailable.

5. Scores, rankings and rule checks

Scores, momentum rankings, trend labels, support and resistance levels, and stop or exit rule checks are produced by formulas applied to past prices. A high score is not a prediction that a fund will rise. A rule check that says "safe" or "triggered" describes where a price sits relative to a level, nothing more. These tools do not place, cancel or protect any order: NAV Desk cannot trade for you, so a "stop" in the Service is a reminder, not an order.

6. AI-generated content

• The Think Tank's replies, briefs and directives are written by artificial intelligence models, not by a licensed professional, and are not reviewed by a person before you see them.
• AI output can contain mistakes, invented facts, wrong arithmetic or outdated information, and can sound confident when it is wrong.
• The same question can produce different answers at different times.
• The assistants see only the data available in the Service. They do not know your full financial picture, tax position or goals.
• Treat every AI reply as a starting point for your own research. Verify anything important against an official source.

7. Prediction-market odds

The Service may display odds from public prediction markets, for example on interest-rate decisions. These figures show prices set by other people's bets at one moment. They can be thinly traded, can move sharply, can differ between markets and are often wrong. They are shown for context only. They are not forecasts by NAV Desk, not advice, and not an invitation to trade in those markets, which carry their own risks and may not be available or lawful for you.

8. Backtests and seasonal patterns

Backtested and seasonal results show how a rule would have behaved on past data. They are hypothetical, are built with the benefit of hindsight, usually leave out fees, taxes and trading limits, and do not reflect real decisions made under pressure. Real results can be very different.

9. Alerts and reports

Push notifications, emails and scheduled reports can be delayed, dropped or blocked by your phone settings, your network or the third-party services that carry them. An alert may arrive after the price has moved or after a TSP deadline has passed. Do not depend on alerts as your only safeguard.

10. Taxes, fees and legal matters

The Service does not give tax or legal advice and does not account for your tax situation. Transactions can trigger fees, taxes or penalties. Ask a qualified tax or legal professional about your own case.

11. Security

No online service can guarantee security. Protect your password and devices, and never share TSP or brokerage credentials with anyone, including us.

12. No list of risks is complete

This page describes the main risks we are aware of. It cannot describe every risk. If you do not understand a risk, or are unsure whether something is suitable for you, speak with a licensed professional before acting.

Questions: info@navdesk.net.